Mourn with me the passing of a fantasy.
In advance of yesterday morning’s Republican conference votes to choose a speaker-designate, I evaluated the seven candidates with an eye toward identifying which among them Democrats might feel comfortable supporting. Here were my criteria:
Following the riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, did the candidate vote against a motion objecting to the certification of Joe Biden’s election as president?
This past September 28, did the candidate vote in support of military aid for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion?
This past September 30, did the candidate vote for the continuing resolution that is now keeping the government operating through November 17?
I was very excited when Tom Emmer, the Republican whip, emerged as the victor, as he had voted correctly on all three of these measures. By contrast, the runner-up, Mike Johnson, voted incorrectly on all three. Additionally, Democrats surely appreciate Emmer having voted for the Respect for Marriage Act (H. R. 8404), which legalized gay marriage. The Democratic caucus was unanimous in support of this bill. In all, only 47 Republicans voted for it (Mike Johnson was not among them).
On account of two vacancies, the current membership of the House of Representatives is 433. Assuming all members vote for a candidate, the required majority to win the speakership is 217 votes. Emmer – like Jim Jordan last week – lacked sufficient support exclusively from within the 221-member Republican conference to meet that threshold. In the final Republican conference run-off vote, Emmer beat Johnson 117-97 and in a post-nomination vote to assess Republican conference support for Emmer, 26 members declined to endorse him, choosing instead Jordan, Johnson, Donalds, or simply “present.”
And so the stillborn fantasy that I now mourn.
I daydreamed yesterday that the House election for speaker would proceed and that the Democratic caucus – or a sufficient number of its members – would vote “present.” You see, victory on the House floor goes to the candidate who wins a majority of those who voted for a candidate. A vote of “present” reduces the size of the denominator.
Assume that the 188 Republicans who voted for Emmer in the internal Republican conference ballot did so again on the House floor. Were 187 or fewer Democrats to vote for their leader, Hakeem Jeffries, and the rest vote “present,” Emmer would have become speaker without a single Democratic vote in support of him.
It was not to be. Emmer quite reasonably assumed that the Democrats would unanimously vote for Jeffries and that his 26 opponents in the Republican conference – or a sufficient number of them – would oppose him again on the House floor. Like Scalise before him, Emmer assumed certain defeat and withdrew his candidacy.
And then last night the Republican conference went ahead and nominated Mike Johnson, who, I repeat, voted the wrong way on all three votes. And beyond having simply voted to deny certification of Biden’s win in the 2020 election, as Chris Cillizza showed, Johnson actively agitated for the denialist position.
At noon the House will convene to conduct the next speaker election. The Democrats will unanimously vote for Jeffries. It is unlikely that sufficient institutionalist Republicans will stand up to Johnson as they did to Jordan, but it’s possible. And if they do, I would like to see the Democratic caucus consider a bolder path toward ending the stalemate.
The House of Representatives has been without a speaker for a full three weeks. In that time the House has been powerless to hold any substantive votes. Acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry has said that, absent a vote of the Republican conference to confer additional authority, his role is limited to presiding over the election of the next speaker.
There are real consequences to this continuing stalemate. The continuing resolution that is currently funding the government is set to expire on November 17. Absent a new continuing resolution or the completion of the regular appropriations process for fiscal year 2024, the government soon will shut down. Meanwhile, without Congressional authorization, the United States is unable to provide additional assistance either to Ukraine or to Israel. The dysfunctional status quo cannot continue much longer.
As I have argued in four previous essays (October 3, October 10, October 14, and October 20), the Democratic caucus ought to seize the opportunity to step in. Although it is the longstanding tradition that members of the minority party vote unanimously for their own leader in speakership elections, there is no requirement that they do so.
After Jim Jordan won the Republican conference nomination and pushed for floor votes last week, we faced the horrifying possibility that this MAGA extremist who was a leading figure in the attempt to overturn the 2020 election would preside over the House. In that context, I was especially insistent that Democrats join with anti-Jordan Republicans to elect a reasonable alternative, such as one of the Republican leaders of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.
Were anti-Johnson Republicans to deny him the speakership, on a subsequent vote Democrats should join with them in casting affirmative votes to elect Emmer.
The table that is my image for this post includes two other acceptable Republican choices for speaker – Don Bacon and Patrick McHenry. Bacon is the Republican whip for the Problem Solvers Caucus and was my previous fervent target of hope. While Democrats and Republicans have suggested that the House grant to McHenry enhanced powers as acting speaker pro tempore to conduct substantive legislative business, McHenry would be an acceptable choice for speaker in his own right.